NC State researchers forecast another active Atlantic hurricane season

By Kat Campbell, WRAL meteorologist

Raleigh, N.C. — North Carolina State University researchers are forecasting a busy Atlantic hurricane season that starts next month.

In research published on Wednesday, NC State researchers are forecasting an above-normal season with the possibility of 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

Dr. Xie was one of my professors when I studied meteorology at NC State. He evaluates sea-surface temperatures, hurricane locations, hurricane intensity, and weather patterns going back more than 100 years. This historical data helps him predict how many storms will form.

• We take a more in-depth look at hurricane forecasting methodology in this blog.

NC State researchers specifically studied how the 2022 hurricane season could impact the Gulf of Mexico. Similar to the past 2 years, the Gulf of Mexico is likely to see above normal tropical activity even though some parts of Louisiana are still recovering from Ida last year. Researchers forecast 3 to 6 named storms with 2 to 5 of them becoming hurricanes. 1 to 2 could become major hurricanes in the Gulf.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but tropical storms have developed in the Atlantic prior to the official start of hurricane season every year since 2013. The earlier you can prepare for the active season, the better!

Our team of meteorologists at WRAL will monitor satellites, model data, and sea-surface temperatures in the coming months to keep an eye on time periods that are most conducive for tropical development.